White water rafting (one commercial day trip): 1 in 250,000 chance it kills you
~4 micromorts. Like driving 1,500 km, or smoking 5 cigarettes. Estimate.
Mortmeter: Worth it. Turbulent, chaotic adrenaline that costs less mortality than a bad day on a bicycle.
Assuming: A commercial guided day trip running Class III to IV rapids with standard safety gear.
How we got this: Commercial river statistics from outfitters and whitewater associations show about one fatality per 250,000 guided participant days. That puts the acute rate at 4 micromorts per commercial outing. 1 day trip times 4 micromorts per trip equals 4 micromorts.
What gets you: Drowning after flip or ejection, Foot entrapment in riverbed rocks, Blunt head or torso trauma against boulders.
Cheaper version: Hire an experienced guide on Class III water and wear a snug helmet to cut risk by 60%.
Sources and method: how Mortmeter prices things, and the Atlas of measured risks.
More priced risks: Sharing a bottle of Flor de Pingus, Riding Polyppen at Bakken in Denmark, Eating 2 whole pizzas, Drinking a bottle of red wine, Winter bathing in the Øresund, A week of off-piste skiing, Getting LASIK eye surgery, Texting while driving on the motorway.